Daily Fishing and Outdoor Report
Yep, that's a "Cat 4" you see mixed in there. Note: Hurricane Gonzalo will likely stay stronger further north than shown here.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014: Gorgeous day and I was dead in the water – as in, stuck in my office, sure to be over 12 hours straight. But another kick-ass SandPaper is soon to be in the worthy hands of the printer – and on the streets by tomorrow.
For folks now away from the region for a protracted stay, make sure to keep up with LBI via http://thesandpaper.villagesoup.com/.
I guess we’ll have to begin pondering possible wave visitations from powerful Hurricane Gonzalo, a Cat 3 and building. We don’t have to ponder nearly as much as Bermuda. With its ears still ringing over near-Hurricane Faye, last weekend, the tiny island off North Caroline is far from ready for something with the juice of Gonzalo. In fact, no place is ready for 120 mph winds. Right now, projections have it hitting Bermuda head-on. While that can quickly change, there seems to be some anecdotal reality to close-together hurricanes taking similar paths.
Below: Faye hits Bermuda:
But back to us. We’re in a moon phase not overly conducive to swell transport but with a hurricane this large something wavy will surely arrive here. However, dating the first groundswells is tough due to the northeast tilt the storm will take, essentially directing swells from its strongest NE quadrant out into the open ocean. But swells will surely come, possibly as early as late this weekend.
Guessing at the possible size of a yet-to-arrive swell is a very inexact science, regardless of who is doing the predicting. I see the potential for 5- to 7-foot faces. However, during tidal changes (low toward high), some truly serious waves could come bustin’ through.
For boat anglers, the waves will make transiting the Island’s inlets a tricky matter, especially at the south end. I also worry this time of year about big sailboats, as folks pleasure-sailing south feel around for the likes of Little Egg Inlet. The last few years, we’ve seen a goodly number of sailing vessels not make the passage safely. We sometime pick up the pieces for months afterwards along Holgate.
More immediately, nasty south winds will kick us around through tomorrow, we’ll then see the longest stretch of west winds we have seen so far this fall. Those west winds, through early next week, will make any hurricane swells look sweet for waveriders. They will also add some distance to surf casts.
Below: All I can guess is this cheerleader's cell phone vibrates when someone is calling.
Better safe than sorry.
FRACK YOU: So, what country now produces the most oil in the world?
Look at all the hands go up. You in the red shirt.
“Saudi Arabia, Sir.”
No. And don’t call me Shirley.
How about you, with the dreadlocks.
Wrong – and get a haircut, dude.
Let’s see, how about you in the back row, with the pimp mustache.
“I believe the guy in the red shirt was correct The answer is Saudi Arabia.”
Well, why don’t you just marry the guy in the red shirt so you can be a forever-after happily wrong couple? The answer is not Saudi Arabia … numbnuts.
Forget the Q&A. I’m gonna let you in on a national secret. The United State of America, i.e. us, now produces more oil than any other nation. Go ahead and Google it if you have to. You can bank on my being right. We left Saudi Arabia in the oil-producing dust months ago.
The real secret, though, is the way we also hide more oil than any and all other nations on the planet. That can be securely said even though virtually nobody knows exactly how much oil we’ve stockpiled since the great gas-line-backup debacle of the 1970s. It’s said that some covert, city-sized, underground tunnel complexes, built during the Cold War, are now repositories for enough stored oil to keep the nation up and humming until the great mothership return for all of us. What's more there's more where that came from.
As one government-critical site asks: "Is the United States Sitting on Trillions of Barrels of Oil?"
That is based on beliefs there is enough oil below Colorado to supply the world. Imagine the U.S. as part of OPEC? Not allowed, by federal law. The 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act, bans crude oil exports. It will not soon be repealed, despite efforts by big business.
By the by, you can forget estimates of the U.S.'s hidden oil reserves. Part of the 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act prohibits the disclosure of America's reserves.
That data -- and the reserves sites -- are heavily guarded, as seen in this covert photo:
Screw focusing on wind, sun, water and tidal power. It full fracking guns ahead. Sure, some lip service is being paid to natural energies but just the money being spent for seismic testing off the Atlantic seaboard exceeds the petty amounts being invested in the search for natural renewable energies.
So what’s it all about, Alfie? Simple. Our nation has gone fuel batty, apparently going through with insane plans to gather more fuel, this time at the expense of our fragile piece of the planet.
As we speak, the U.S. is allowing the fracturing of the earth by injecting sand, water, and chemicals into it, at high pressures, to blast open shale rock and release the trapped gas inside. At the same time, tireless seismic searching is being done just off our shores, to find more places to frack for gas and/or suck oil. This is such an fule-gathering overreaction that even OPEC is going "WTF?!"
I can cynically end this tirade with this info: In May of this year, Germany set a new record by generating 74 percent of its power needs from renewable energy. We couldn’t possibly ascribe to being as intelligent and industrious as them, right?
Below is an important read ...
The International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) will hold their next round of meetings November 10-17 in Italy. The meeting will convene top tuna fishery industry professionals and discuss current management protocols and how the bluefin fishery, along with the other species are performing based on the most recently available science. Following is information from the Pew Charitable Trusts ahead of these meetings that seeks to educate industry participants on the current state of Western and Eastern bluefin stocks. Pew also offers up a few initiatives it would like to see management consider during the November meetings:
Atlantic bluefin tuna may be getting the break they need after years of overfishing and poor management. New evidence suggests that the species is beginning to bounce back from near collapse of the fishery—at least for now. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the gains could be lost if fishery managers take risky leaps, rather than responsible, cautious steps.
Great uncertainty remains about the extent of the Atlantic bluefin’s recovery, according to an updated scientific assessment released Sept. 9, 2014, produced by the Standing Committee of Research and Statistics (SCRS) of the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT). That means there is also considerable uncertainty about how many more fish could be caught without reversing recent population increases. So now the international effort to save Atlantic bluefin from collapse must turn to ensuring its full recovery—despite pressures to increase current catch limits.
When ICCAT members meet in Italy in November with the latest scientific information in hand, they should make the precautionary choice and maintain limits at current levels.
The western population of Atlantic bluefin tuna spawns in the Gulf of Mexico and feeds in the North Atlantic, primarily off the coast of North America. This population has remained at low levels for more than three decades, in part because each time there was evidence of population growth, ICCAT managers agreed to raise the annual quota, a step that undid any gains. The current quota is 1,750 metric tons, which is caught primarily by the United States, Canada, and Japan.
The new SCRS assessment indicates that the western population is showing signs of growth, though scientists can’t determine precisely how much rebuilding has really taken place. They warn of major uncertainty regarding the updated estimate, and the report cautions that “the conclusions of this assessment do not capture the full degree of uncertainty in the assessments and projections.” In its executive summary, the science committee goes on to mention this uncertainty six more times in the section about the western population.
So, should fishing nations increase the quota from 1,750 metric tons a year? The answer is a definitive no. The management advice provided by the SCRS suggests that catches of “less than 2,250 metric tons” have only a fifty-fifty chance of increasing the population’s size by the 2019 rebuilding deadline. In other words, it is just as likely that such an increase will lead to population loss. The SCRS report says that maintaining the current quota would ensure that the population continues to increase—and at a faster rate than it would under a higher quota—and help to reduce some of the uncertainty in the assessment model.
“There are only five years left in the rebuilding plan for western Atlantic bluefin, and there is still likely to be a long way to go to recovery. Now is not the time for risky decisions,” said Amanda Nickson, director of global tuna conservation for The Pew Charitable Trusts. “Instead of giving in to pressure to raise the quota at the first hint of increased abundance—albeit a very uncertain increase—fishery managers should follow the scientific advice to maintain the quota in order to lock in recent growth and improve the chance of a recovery for the western population.”
The eastern population of Atlantic bluefin is much larger than the western, a fact reflected in the much higher current quota of 13,400 metric tons. These tuna are caught primarily by members of the European Union, with Morocco, Japan, and other countries catching much smaller shares.
The updated assessment suggests that the eastern population has grown significantly since the ICCAT rebuilding plan was put in place in 2010 and is on its way to recovery. Still, the scientists warn that the assessment results also come with a problematic level of uncertainty. That means the extent of the population increase cannot be precisely determined. The word “uncertainty” is used 10 times in the eastern bluefin section of the executive summary.
The SCRS then offers equally murky management advice. While the scientists state that maintaining or gradually and moderately increasing the quota would not jeopardize the recovery, they could not agree on how much of an increase eastern bluefin could withstand in 2015 without jeopardizing rebuilding. The advice also fails to take into account illegal fishing and its potential impact on the recovery, something fishery managers should not ignore.
While some ICCAT members will use the terms “gradual” and “moderate” to justify calls for quota increases, any proposed boost for 2015 is arbitrary, given that scientists could not agree on an increase that would not undermine the recovery. Without clear scientific guidance on a safe level of increase next year, the best option is to maintain the current quota in accordance with the lower bound of the information provided by the scientific advice.
“Pew’s fundamental concern is that management decisions for 2015 are made in a precautionary manner, so the recovery of this population can be fully realized,” Nickson said. “It was only five short years ago that this population was in real trouble. It would be utterly irresponsible and out of line with the scientific advice to raise the quota by 70 percent in one year, as some countries are already demanding.”
20 hrs ·
Well today was last trip on the HOT TUNA for the year, we headed East to Hudson after 14 straight canceled charters due to weather with a red hot bite I was dying to get out there. Well with my luck the bite completely died today. Spoke to a few good fisherman and friends out there and there was no night bite a boat or 2 caught a fish or 2 but nothing like it was. Day time troll today was tough with weeds but manageable if you worked the pit good. I heard of a maybe one long fin on troll and 2 on the chunk. We had a wahoo bite off and half dozen Mahi, nothing what i was expecting but its time end my offshore sea on. Might do some inshore mako and bluefin if they come through. Anyways thanks to everyone who sailed with us this year we greatly appreciate all of the business and look forward to next year. We will have all new rods and some upgraded tackle for our customers. Will be putting up a year end video soon.
Gotta love this weather ..!