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Tuesday, October 08, 2019: A quick mention that I no longer have anything to do with controlling the weather. I used to but it got to where I just couldn’t please everyone, every day. There are more let-it-rain types out there than you and your sunny disposition might guess. Then there are the downpour lovers and drought worshippers calling me on the same day. I did get a goodly number of well-deserved compliments over how I conjured up amazing weekends from springtime right until summer’s end. You’re welcome. But I’m now off the case, thus the crappy weekends.
This is my escape from any blame for another week of nasty-ass winds, along with Holgate beach erosion. I should note that short of Holgate – all of Holgate (wild and developed areas) – Long Beach Island’s beaches are huge, especially mid-Island northward. Ship Bottom beaches have never once been wider during my now drawn-out tenure. These miles of solid sandiness loom large for buggyists, now allowed on all allowable LBI buggying beaches. Buggying never allowed in Barnegat Light and untenable along the populated areas of Holgate.
TOW TALK: One of our prime go-to pull-out companies, South Shore Towing, is currently getting their main 4WD towing rig repaired. It could be a week or more before it’s ready to tow. Nonetheless, these folks have been hugely helpful in past pullouts, so program (609) 597-9964 into your cell.
I was asked by South Shore to pass only some procedural points when calling for their assistance. First and foremost – and this is not as simple as it might seem – you must let them know what town your in. “Long Beach Township” doesn’t work a jot. Exactness counts.
If you have been cruising quite a bit before a bog down, it’s hard to know your exact whereabouts without literally walking off the beach to get some reference points. Even then, mere street numbers are often a moot point. We happen to have the likes of four 18th Streets on LBI. I know since my 18th Street (Ship Bottom) mail has been delivered to all of them, rarely mine. Therefore, go down the block and seek out some landmarks, for instance, the Acme or Kubels 2. Along find-me lines, GPS numbers can be helpful in this day and age.
A given: Always leave your cellphone number with the tow company. Thereafter, keep the bleedin’ phone within earshot. On windy days, if outside a vehicle still pondering digging out, you won’t be able to hear a ring from a phone inside a buggy. I was involved in a couple sinkages where missed return calls screwed up everything as the tow truck driver was cruising all over the place.
When calling for help, it is also vital to estimate how far onto a beach you’re stuck and how far from a buggy entrance you are. Yes, this might involve some serious hoofing the sand on your part (seeking an entrance point) but, hey, you got yourself into this mess – unless your 4WD transmission gave out, in which case bad luck put you there.
In Holgate, try as best you can to estimate the distance down the beach where you’ve settled in. “Settled in” makes it sound kinda cozy. A sink sucks regardless of what you call it. On a whole, 90 percent of Holgate Refuge bog-downs are within the first half mile.
Possibly the most important procedural move when calling for a tow truck is to IMMEDIATELY call if someone (like me) comes along and digs/pulls you out. I hate to say it but if I hear a tow truck has already been called I forego throwing my back into a dig-out effort. Too often I’ve seen un-updated tow trucks drivers having to angrily turn around and head home without a fare, as it were. We can’t risk not having them at the ready when the crap really hits the fan, as in sunk deep, near the water with rising storm tides.
ACTUALLY LOOKING SLUICY OUT THERE: Amid the near constant showing high seas of late, a couple beach reading surfcasters tell me there are some very nice troughs forming now that we’ve distanced ourselves from replenishments. I’m assured that those sluices are where we’ll be scoring super stripers beginning … any day now.
(You old enough to remember that great Chuck Jackson original (1962), “Any Day Now”? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l22dGvbyYs8). It was later done by almost everyone, including Elvis and, most recently, countryized by Ronnie Millsap.)
When it comes to slews, sluices and troughs, I always recall an now-gone buddy who was bass catching sommagun. In his later years, he couldn’t cast a lick. Heaven forbid you offer to cast for him. So, he’d all but underhand cast his 12-foot bait rod, barely making it into the water. Did I mention be was a bass-catching maniac – never getting clams, mackerel or bunker chunks more than 20 feet out per cast. Tells you where the bass still frequently feed to this day. RIP, Gus.
CONSERVATION POLICE OFFICER REPORTS (SEPT.): A slew of shark poachers were caught in late summer possessing three juvenile sandbar sharks, what we just as often call brown sharks.
Of late, much ado has been made of illegally fishing sharks. But this incident was far more than mere illegally landing and releasing. A report written up by Detective Harp and CPO Meyer states, “CPOs observed the individuals remove the heads, internals, and partially fillet the sharks before placing them in a bucket.”
The illegal shark-takers got wind of the nearby “wardens” and tried to stash their loot. “They hid the shark carcasses in the marsh and denied having caught anything.”
Nice try … but not overly bright since that masking move constituted interfering with the duties of a Conservation Police Officer after the evidentiary innards were easily recovered by the observant officer.
Adding to the bust was the unsightly matter of “multiple beer cans and trash left by the individuals.” Along with summonses for the taking of a prohibited species, they got hit with wanton waste, littering and that hindering thing.
CLASSIC MOMENT: Here's a look at the Grand Prize for the 1956 Striped Bass Derby: "a brand new fully equipped $3,800 Dodge Sierra Station Wagon."
*** Adjusted for inflation, $3,800.00 in 1956 is equal to $35,622.59 in 2019. ***
I always enjoy the "Wildlife Nuisance Complaints" as listed by the state's Endangered and Nongame Species Program. Here's a read from a monthly Report for August 16, 2019 – September 15, 2019: See my weekly column.
BREAKDOWN OF COMPLAINTS BY SPECIES
Mountain Lion 2
Saltwater marshland glassworts are showing off the reds this early fall, seemingly more so than usual. A sign of a cold winter? Or does it mean a mild winter? (Quite edible ... in salty salad way.)
Far ago but not long away. Dad kid times.
Massive Super Typhoon Hagibis currently strongest storm on Earth
Currently, the strongest storm on the planet -- and on its way to possibly becoming the strongest of the year -- Super Typhoon Hagibis has gathered strength with astonishing speed. Winds in the system -- which was only tropical storm strength on Sunday morning -- surged by at least 144 km/h (90 mph) by Monday morning. All told, it took just 18 hours for Hagibis to reach super typhoon status.
Hagibis as it developed between Sunday and Monday, seen on IR satellite. Image courtesy RAAMB.
By Monday evening, local time, sustained winds had reached 260 km/h, with gusts in excess of 300 km/h. And the storm is set to strengthen even further into Tuesday.
"This is the most intensification by a tropical cyclone in the western North Pacific in 18 hours since Yates in 1996," tweeted Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.
The U.S. National Weather Service issued a typhoon warning for the islands of Saipan, Tinian, Alamagan and Pagan in the Northern Marianas on Sunday, with the worst impacts from the storm expected in the region through Monday afternoon, Eastern Time. A tropical storm warning was also in effect for the islands of Agrihan, Rota, and Guam.
Hagibis is set to bring strong winds and torrential rainfall to the Northern Marianas, a U.S. territory, through Tuesday, Eastern Time. Flash flooding and high surf are also likely in Guam as the centre of the storm passes to the north.
From there, models diverge somewhat on the eventual path of the storm, but the official track takes it on a path close to Japan's main island by the end of the week. Given the expected trajectory and strength of this storm, Weather Network meteorologists say it may eventually influence the weather in western North America in the long range.
(Just to get all sides of the story.)
Top-level climate modeler goes rogue, criticizes 'nonsense' of 'global warming crisis'By Thomas Lifson
A highly qualified and experienced climate modeler with impeccable credentials has rejected the unscientific bases of the doom-mongering over a purported climate crisis. His work has not yet been picked up in this country, but that is about to change. Writing at the Australian site Quadrant, Tony Thomas introduces the English-speaking world to the truth-telling of Dr. Mototaka Nakamura (hat tip: Andrew Bolt, John McMahon).
There's a top-level oceanographer and meteorologist who is prepared to cry "Nonsense!"on the "global warming crisis" evident to climate modellers but not in the real world. He's as well or better qualified than the modellers he criticises — the ones whose Year 2100 forebodings of 4degC warming have set the world to spending $US1.5 trillion a year to combat CO2 emissions.
The iconoclast is Dr. Mototaka Nakamura. In June he put out a small book in Japanese on "the sorry state of climate science". It's titled Confessions of a climate scientist: the global warming hypothesis is an unproven hypothesis, and he is very much qualified to take a stand. From 1990 to 2014 he worked on cloud dynamics and forces mixing atmospheric and ocean flows on medium to planetary scales. His bases were MIT (for a Doctor of Science in meteorology), Georgia Institute of Technology, Goddard Space Flight Centre, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Duke and Hawaii Universities and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. He's published about 20 climate papers on fluid dynamics. [i]
Today's vast panoply of "global warming science" is like an upside down pyramid built on the work of a few score of serious climate modellers. They claim to have demonstrated human-derived CO2 emissions as the cause of recent global warming and project that warming forward. Every orthodox climate researcher takes such output from the modellers' black boxes as a given.
Dr. Nakamura has just made his work available to the English-speaking world:
(AT just published the story of Canada's Environment Agency discarding actual historical data and substituting its models of what the data should have been, for instance.)
Now Nakamura has found it again, further accusing the orthodox scientists of "data falsification" by adjusting previous temperature data to increase apparent warming "The global surface mean temperature-change data no longer have any scientific value and are nothing except a propaganda tool to the public," he writes.
The climate models are useful tools for academic studies, he says. However, "the models just become useless pieces of junk or worse (worse in a sense that they can produce gravely misleading output) when they are used for climate forecasting." The reason:
These models completely lack some critically important climate processes and feedbacks, and represent some other critically important climate processes and feedbacks in grossly distorted manners to the extent that makes these models totally useless for any meaningful climate prediction.
I myself used to use climate simulation models for scientific studies, not for predictions, and learned about their problems and limitations in the process.
Ignoring non-CO2 climate determinants
Climate forecasting is simply impossible, if only because future changes in solar energy output are unknowable. As to the impacts of human-caused CO2, they can't be judged "with the knowledge and technology we currently possess."
Other gross model simplifications include
# Ignorance about large and small-scale ocean dynamics
# A complete lack of meaningful representations of aerosol changes that generate clouds.
# Lack of understanding of drivers of ice-albedo (reflectivity) feedbacks: "Without a reasonably accurate representation, it is impossible to make any meaningful predictions of climate variations and changes in the middle and high latitudes and thus the entire planet."
# Inability to deal with water vapor elements
# Arbitrary "tunings" (fudges) of key parameters that are not understood
Concerning CO2 changes he says,
I want to point out a simple fact that it is impossible to correctly predict even the sense or direction of a change of a system when the prediction tool lacks and/or grossly distorts important non-linear processes, feedbacks in particular, that are present in the actual system …
… The real or realistically-simulated climate system is far more complex than an absurdly simple system simulated by the toys that have been used for climate predictions to date, and will be insurmountably difficult for those naïve climate researchers who have zero or very limited understanding of geophysical fluid dynamics. I understand geophysical fluid dynamics just a little, but enough to realize that the dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans are absolutely critical facets of the climate system if one hopes to ever make any meaningful prediction of climate variation.
Solar input, absurdly, is modelled as a "never changing quantity". He says, "It has only been several decades since we acquired an ability to accurately monitor the incoming solar energy. In these several decades only, it has varied by one to two watts per square metre. Is it reasonable to assume that it will not vary any more than that in the next hundred years or longer for forecasting purposes? I would say, No."
There is much, much more. Read the whole thing.
But who are you going to believe: a superbly qualified Japanese scientist or a Swedish teenager with mental issues?
Milkmen and milkwomen are making a comeback in London as millennials have started using glass milk bottles in a bid to cut down plastic waste.
Dairies in the capital told of a "phenomenal" upsurge in interest from younger customers at the start of the year amid growing public upset over plastic waste.
Both UK-wide company milk&more and east London dairy Parker Dairies have seen increased demand for glass bottles in 2018, citing David Attenborough's Blue Planet II as the "catalyst" for the new uptake.
The firms said younger consumers and families seem willing to pay more for the service in a bid to help the environment.
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milk&more has gained more than 2,500 customers since the beginning of the year
It comes amid conflicting reports of a resurgence in glass doorstep deliveries in the UK.
While it was reported there was a 25 per cent hike in the number of deliveries in the UK over the last two years, Dairy UK told the Standard it could not confirm the figure.
The industry body said figures showed doorstep deliveries make up 3 per cent of milk sales in the UK – around 1 million pints per day – and glass milk bottles make up 3 per cent of all milk sales.
But depot manager of Parker Dairies Paul Lough said interest of late in glass bottles has been “absolutely phenomenal”.
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Parker Dairies: the east London dairy has a fleet of 25 electric milk floats (Parker Dairies)
He said the dairy, which has a fleet of 25 electric milk floats covering all of east London, the city and the West End, has gained 382 new customers since the beginning of the year. Of these new calls, 95 per cent are having milk delivered in glass bottles.
Mr Lough said: “Before Christmas we were taking 30 calls a month, and since New Year we are getting 30 calls a week.”
The dairy has seen a 4 per cent increase in sales since December, with an extra 1800 pints being sold each week.