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Daily Fishing and Outdoor Report

Friday, August 14, 2015: These are the true dog days of summer,

 Common take-off miscalculation: Failing to compensate for the added weight of a chewy. 

Friday, August 14, 2015: These are the true dog days of summer, not simply because of the next batch of arriving heat but also because of the tediousness that now enters many summer job scenarios. When I had life by the balls, I would leave LBI on or about August 20th to return to college on Maui, which started early so it could let out in early May to accommodate the pineapple harvest, a job I tried a couple times – at which point I abandoned my aspiration to become a migrant field laborer.   

Anyway, I’m now fully a year ‘round worker here on LBI but summers add such a unique form of stresses and madness that I feel like I have a job within a job between, say, June 1 and Sept. 1.

I still love summers. And I’m as disturbed as all ya’ll over the speed this summer is passing at. It’s diabolical – and even a bit suspicious.

It’s flying times like these I harken back to a time continuum that Uncle Albert (Einstein) tried to mathematically prove/explain, via physic and a train of chalkboards. He swore that time itself – the big, expanding-universe time -- could speed up but we’d have no way of knowing it. The most we’d detect is a sense that the period between Time A and Time B seemingly passed more quickly than it had during previous periods between the same Time A and Time B periods. In other words, just what we somehow feel is happening now. Hey, I have to somehow explain why summers went on forever decades back and now pass at the speed of light.

This is my way of also bidding an arriving adieu to the many collegians who leave us in the nest week or so, to prepare for dorm life. Get smart – and, also, get some partying in for me.

Below: Check out this Steve George fluke. Maybe the most colorful fluke I've ever seen. It had obviously been atop gravel, mussels, clam shells or the likes. 

Fishing is floundering – and some nice flounder to be sure. Through social media, there is seldom a doormat that doesn’t make the news grade. Of course, “nothing” sessions don’t photograph so well. I do see some totally exceptional fluking in the suds for this entire weekend, mainly late-day. Interestingly, some street ends are consistently way better than others. It might be some bottom contour thing. That’s why I encourage using easily castable baited jigs, able to fly even in moderate winds. But, most of all, a jig lets you walk along feeling out for fluking glory holes. You really can’t do that with static baits and dead sticks.

When walking along jigging for fluke, I do a half-compass cast pattern. Just as it sounds, I first cast north, retrieving along the near-beach swash. My next cast is a little further out, north-northeast … and so on, to a full southerly cast. That technique not only covers a lot of ground but it actually accounts for the many ambush angles a fluke assumes on the bottom, as it adjusts to be on the downside of sand mounds, where it can grab prey coming over the top. By covering all those compass angles, you’re most likely to bring your bait up over a rise and into the attack zone of ambushing fluke. Simply casting straight out and retrieving covers very little prime fluke ambush zones. Also, a straight in east-west retrieve is not what a fluke expects, and can even confuse them. Prey most often travels more parallel to the beach.

Below: Jetties are another great launch point for jigging fluke. (seamoneyfishingdotwordpressdotcom.wordpress.com)

When I did a whole lot of kayak fishing, I had great luck fluking by casting a baited jig onto the sand and pulling it into the water. And it’s not just fluke that go crazy over the sudden arrival of something coming in off the bank. There must be some sort of commonness to that because even stubborn fish – ignoring most everything else – can’t resist going after a suddenly showing item.  

There are a few big bluefish moving through the swash, mainly of IBSP but also seen off LBI. To me, those passers-through may loom large since we’ve been wondering if the choppers will return for our fall fishing Classic. It’s a stretch at this point but something to watch. Remember, it’s time to sign up for the Classic. Also, it looks like we’ll be selling some ultra-cool Classic Tees. Keep tabs on the event at http://www.lbift.com/tournament.php?id=844 or https://www.facebook.com/LBISurfFishingClassic

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Limit this morning

Steve Rupinski's photo.

Jeffrey JonesBetty and Nicks Bait and Tackle Fishing Club

9 miles off LBI today working the wrecks!! Yeah you lose rigs but it's worth it. Fish hard stay focused, fellow fisherman and fisherwomen. Got 3 total 19, 22, 24
Jeffrey Jones's photo.
Jeffrey Jones's photo.

Latest forecast suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California

The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.”

Read all about the California drought >>

“This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

El Nino: 1997 vs. 2015



              

 At the moment, this year’s El Niño is stronger than it was at this time of year in 1997. Areas in red and white represent the highest sea-surface heights above the average, which are a reflection of how warm sea-surface temperatures are above the average. (Source: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist Bill Patzert)

Patzert said El Niño’s signal in the ocean “right now is stronger than it was in 1997,” the summer in which the most powerful El Niño on record developed.

“Everything now is going to the right way for El Niño,” Patzert said. “If this lives up to its potential, this thing can bring a lot of floods, mudslides and mayhem.”

“This could be among the strongest El Niños in the historical record dating back to 1950,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center.

After the summer 1997 El Niño muscled up, the following winter gave Southern California double its annual rainfall and dumped double the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, an essential source of precipitation for the state’s water supply, Patzert said.

See the most-read stories this hour >>

A strong El Niño can shift a subtropical jet stream that normally pours rain over the jungles of southern Mexico and Central America toward California and the southern United States.

But so much rain all at once has proved devastating to California in the past. In early 1998, storms brought widespread flooding and mudslides, causing 17 deaths and more than half a billion dollars in damage in California. Downtown L.A. got nearly a year's worth of rain in February 1998.

During the second largest El Niño on record, in the winter of 1982-83, damage was particularly severe along the coast, especially when powerful storms arrived as high tide surged onto the coast. "Particularly at the end of January 1983, we had some very strong storm wave effects along the coast, and a lot of the vulnerable structures were lost that winter," said Dan Cayan, climate researcher with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego and the U.S. Geological Survey.

"Many locations along the California coast recorded their highest sea levels during that winter," he said.

Related: A huge El Niño could devastate Southern California >>

The effects of this muscular El Niño – nicknamed “Bruce Lee” by one blogger for the National Weather Service – are already being felt worldwide. While a strong El Niño can bring heavy winter rains to California and the southern United States, it can also bring dry weather elsewhere in the world.

Already, El Niño is being blamed for drought conditions in parts of the Philippines, Indonesia and Australia, as occurred in 1997-98.

Drought is also persistent in Central America. Water levels are now so low in the waterways that make up the Panama Canal that officials recently announced limits on traffic through the passageway that links the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

El Niño also influenced the heavy rainstorms that effectively ended drought conditions in Colorado, Texas and Oklahoma, and has brought floods and mudslides to Chile.

There are a couple of reasons why scientists say El Niño is gaining strength.

First, ocean temperatures west of Peru are continuing to climb, reaching their highest level so far this year. The temperatures in a benchmark location in that area of the Pacific Ocean were 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit above the average as of Aug. 5. That’s slightly higher than it was on Aug. 6, 1997, when it was 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

The mass of warm water in the Pacific Ocean is also bigger and deeper than it was at this point in 1997, Patzert said.

Second, the so-called trade winds that normally keep the ocean waters west of Peru cool -- by pushing warm water farther west toward Indonesia -- are weakening.

That’s allowing warm water to flow eastward toward the Americas, giving El Niño more strength.

For this year’s El Niño to truly rival its 1997 counterpart, there still needs to be “a major collapse in trade winds from August to November as we saw in 1997,” Patzert said.

“We’re waiting for the big trade wind collapse,” Patzert said. “If it does, it could be stronger than 1997.”

Related: Huge El Niño leaves parts of California vulnerable to flooding >>

There is a small chance such a collapse may not happen.

“There’s always a possibility these trade winds could surprise us and come back,” Patzert said.

Overall, the Climate Prediction Center forecast a greater-than-90% chance that El Niño will continue through this winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and about an 85% chance it will last into the early spring.

In California, officials have cautioned the public against imagining that El Niño will suddenly end the state’s chronic water challenges.

In fact, it would take an astonishing 2.5 to three times the average annual precipitation to make up for the rain and snow lost in the central Sierra mountain range over the last four years of drought, said Kevin Werner, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's expert on climate in the western United States.

That amount far exceeds what happened in 1983, the wettest year on record for that region, when the area got 1.9 times the average annual precipitation, Werner said.

"A single El Niño year is very unlikely to erase four years of drought," Werner said.

"The drought is not ending any time soon," Halpert added.

California has been dry for much of the last 15 years. Even if California gets a wet winter this year, it could be followed by another severe multiyear drought.

Another problem is that the Pacific Ocean west of California is substantially warmer than it was in 1997. That could mean that though El Niño-enhanced precipitation fell as snow in early 1998, storms hitting the north could cause warm rain to fall this winter. Such a situation would not be good news “for long-term water storage in the snowpack,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at Stanford University.

Drought officials prefer snow in the mountains in the winter because it slowly melts during the spring and summer and can trickle at a gentle speed into the state’s largest reservoirs in Northern California. Too much rain all at once in the mountains in the winter can force officials to flush excess water to the ocean to keep dams from overflowing.

Swain said it’s important to keep in mind that all El Niño events are different, and just because the current El Niño has the potential to be the strongest on record “doesn’t necessarily mean that the effects in California will be the same.”

Interested in the stories shaping California? Sign up for the free Essential California newsletter >>

“A strong El Niño is very likely at this point, namely because we've essentially reached the threshold already, but a wet winter is never a guarantee in California,” Swain said in an email.

“I think a good way to think about it is this: There is essentially no other piece of information that is more useful in predicting California winter precipitation several months in advance than the existence of a strong El Niño event,” Swain said. “But it's still just one piece of the puzzle. So while the likelihood of a wet winter is increasing, we still can't rule out other outcomes.”

UPDATES

12:54 p.m.: This article was updated with additional comments from Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center; Dan Cayan, climate researcher with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego and the U.S. Geological Survey; and Kevin Werner, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's expert on climate in the western United States.

9:29 a.m.: This article has been updated with comments from Halpert.

8:10 a.m.: This article has been updated with additional details and background.

This post was originally published at 6 a.m.

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Latest NOAA Forecast for El Nino on Track for Possible Record Event

SEAFOODNEWS.COM [SeafoodNews]  August 14, 2015

The latest NOAA update confirms a building El Nino event, with weakening Easterly Winds in the Tropical Pacific, and the continued movement of exceptionally warm water toward Latin America.
 
The previous strongest El Nino on record was in 1998, when the warm water temperature anomlay got to be  4.1 degrees above the thirty year mean.  The current forecast is for warming up 3.6 degrees.
 
NOAA also says there is now an 85% chance of the El Nino lasting until the spring.
 
NOAA commentators mention that it is not possible to predict the strength of various El Nino effects, and although the normal pattern is for more precipitation in Southern California and the South of the US, there have been some El Nino years when this did not materialize.
 
Combined with the already warm waters (the blob) off the West Coast, it appears that warm water effects in the Pacific will be long lasting and widespread.
 
NOAA will be releasing its three month climate outlook on August 20th.

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Below: Interesting strip-bait tutorial from  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxgx2uTkahg&feature=youtu.be

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Just in case you need this ... I was once shortly on there for a nine-pound Spanish mackerel ... taken in Holgate.  

NEW JERSEY STATE RECORD MARINE FISH













Species­

Lbs.

Oz.

Year

Angler

Where Caught

Amberjack, greater

85

0

1993

Edwin Metzner

Off Cape May

Bass, black sea

8

4.5

2010

Andrew A. Merendino

Off Cape May

Bluefish

27

1

1997

Roger Kastorsky

5 Fathom Bank

Bonito, Atlantic

13

8

1945

Frank Lykes, Jr.

Off Sandy Hook

Cobia

87

0

1999

John Shanchuk

Off Sea Bright

Cod

81

0

1967

Joseph Chesla

Off Brielle

Crab, blue

8¾” pt. to pt.

2009

Raymond Ponik

Bayonne

Croaker, Atlantic

5

8

1981

Frederick Brown

Delaware Bay

*Cunner

3

0.5

2012

Raul de la Prida

Off Pt. Pleasant

Dogfish, smooth

19

11.2

2013

Michael J. LaTorre, Jr.

Sculls Bay

Dogfish, spiny

15

12

1990

Jeff Pennick

Off Cape May

Dolphin

63

3

1974

Scott Smith, Jr.

Baltimore Canyon

Drum, black

109

0

2008

Nick Henry

Delaware Bay

Drum, red

55

0

1985

Daniel Yanino

Great Bay

Eel, American

9

13

1988

Warren Campbell

Atlantic City

Fluke

19

12

1953

Walter Lubin

Off Cape May

Flounder, winter

5

11

1993

Jimmy Swanson

Off Barnegat Light

Hake, white

41

7

1989

Wayne Eble

Off Barnegat Light

Kingfish, Northern

2

8

2004

Chester Urbanski

Barnegat Bay

Ling (red hake)

12

13

2010

Billy Watson

Off Manasquan

Mackerel, Atlantic

4

1

1983

Abe Elkin

Manasquan Ridge

Mackerel, king

54

0

1998

Fernando Alfaiate

Off Cape May

*Mackerel, Spanish

9

12

1990

Donald Kohler

Off Cape May

Marlin, blue

1,046

0

1986

Phil Infantolino

Hudson Canyon

Marlin, white

137

8

1980

Mike Marchell

Hudson Canyon

Perch, white

2

12

1998

Michael King

Little Beach Creek

*Pollock

46

7

1975

John Holton

Off Brielle

Porgy

5

14

1976

Victor Rone

Delaware Bay

Sailfish

43

4

2006

Dr. John Tallia

Linden Kohl Canyon

Seatrout, spotted

11

2

1974

Bert Harper

Holgate Surf

Shad, American

7

0

1967

Rodger West

Great Bay

Shad, hickory

2

13

2011

Robert Macejka

Mantoloking

Shark, blue

366

0

1996

William Young, Jr.

Mud Hole

Shark, bull

Vacant (Minimum Weight 150 lbs.)

Shark, dusky

530

0

1987

Brian Dunlevy

Off Great Egg Inlet

Shark, hammerhead

365

0

1985

Walter Thacara

Mud Hole

Shark, porbeagle

Vacant (Minimum Weight 100 lbs.)

Shark, s-fin mako

856

0

1994

Christopher Palmer

Wilmington Canyon

Shark, thresher

683

0

2009

Bennett Fogelberg

Fingers

Shark, tiger

880

0

1988

Billy DeJohn

Off Cape May

Sheepshead

19

1

2014

William Catino

Longport

Spadefish

11

6

1998

Cliff Low

Delaware Bay

Spearfish, longbill

42

0

1989

George Algard

Poor Man’s Canyon

42

0

1997

Joseph Natoli

Hudson Canyon

Spot

0

13

2003

Robert Belsky, Jr.

Little Sheepshead Creek

*Striped bass

78

8

1982

Al McReynolds

Atlantic City

Swordfish

530

0

1964

Edmund Levitt

Wilmington Canyon

*Tautog

25

0

1998

Anthony Monica

Off Ocean City

Tilefish, golden

63

8

2009

Dennis Muhlenforth

Linden Kohl Canyon

Tilefish, gray

23

14

2013

Cheol Min Park

Wilmington Canyon

Triggerfish, gray

5

12

2008

Ronald Pires

High Bar Harbor

Tuna, albacore

77

15

1984

Dr. S. Scannapiego

Spencer Canyon

Tuna, big-eye

364

14

1984

George Krenick

Hudson Canyon

Tuna, bluefin

1,030

6

1981

Royal Parsons

Off Pt. Pleasant

Tuna, skipjack

13

4

1999

Craig Eberbach

Wilmington Canyon

Tuna, yellowfin

290

0

1980

Wayne Brinkerhoff

Hudson Canyon

Tunny, little

24

15

1977

Mark Niemczyk

Off Sea Bright

Wahoo

123

12

1992

Robert Carr

28-Mile Wreck

Weakfish

18

8

1986

Karl Jones

Delaware Bay

Whiting (silver hake)

Vacant (Minimum Weight 2.5 lbs.)

* Fish was previously certified by the IGFA as a world record.

For information concerning the New Jersey State Record Fish or Skillful Angler programs, visit the New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife’s Web site at NJFishandWildlife.com.

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Our boy Martin doing his favorite pastime when not racing ... this is in British Columbia. 

(Had so much fun salmon fishing at Johnny Morris'sBass Pro Shops lodge in British Columbia last week!!!."Martin Truex Jr.

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A real stud of a ‪#‎blackfish‬

Mike Laptew's photo.
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Bob Misak's photo.
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Dont leave without your cow
22", Flounder Pounder!

Frank Stone's photo.

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The only thing dog sharks are good for is teaching 3yr olds how to fish....

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Elias Vaisberg

Tough night, we had fish but coudn't get the big ones going. Biggest fish came trolling giant shads over three knots. I had a blast and thank you for the great time 
Eric Harrison. Time to hit it hard solo 
smile emoticon
Elias Vaisberg's photo.
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