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Daily Fishing and Outdoor Report

Dec. 16, 2007 -- Quickie storm and mega-storms to come

Sunday, December 16, 2007: Waves: Very large but dropping rapidly with howling west winds.

The beaches were seriously washed over as winds reached near 45 mph and were very onshore (ENE) with a quarter-moon rising – an astronomical condition favoring flooding. Fortunately, the system was here and gone before fences fell or dunes went down (see blog below).

Here is an email pass-on from the Village Harbor Fishing Club. It has today with a grassroots effort to save NJ fluke fishing. It is, of course, likely going to be wrought with futility -- and yet another example of the constant need to whittle away at regulations; sometimes rightfully whittling away at absurd rules and, at other times, carving away at regs just to stay in the money and filets (recreational and commercial) at the expense of the fisheries.

Bill,

Could you pass this along to … other fluke fisherman you might know. I'm not sure if you have heard what is going on but our wonderful government officials are trying to shut down our fluke fishery because of the Magnuson-Stevens Act. This act was originally supposed to help rebuild the fluke stock but the time frame that was written into the act is an arbitrary number that some rocket scientist came up with which is an estimate of the fluke stock from back in the 1920's before records were even kept. This is not attainable in the time frame listed in the act and because of this we will be seeing a smaller harvest of fluke this coming year 2008 (i.e. shorter season, larger minimum size, and fewer fish per day) and if we go over our quota this year the wonderful government officials will close the season entirely in 2009. I am not going to preach on my podium any further at this point but I think all of the fi sherman out there need to check out this website for more information and we all need to get together to fight this as they are also looking to do this to several other fisheries like seabass, tog and scup also. Soon we will not be able to fish for anything.

http://ssfff.net/

Thanks, Russ

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Jay, Had to chuckle at your blog about the lady who wanted to know what new SUV to buy her husband. I actually hate those commercials about buying a brand new “top-shelf” vehicle of your spouse. It sets the bar moronically high. A gift cannot be based on money. About ten years ago my wife totally stunned me at Christmas when I came out of the house Christmas morning to find a worn but totally gorgeous Jeep, one I’ve used every year since. I bring that up since I couldn’t have been any happier or more surprised, even though it wasn’t anywhere near new. …

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STORM BLOG: It’s not the size but the duration. I’m talking about storms, coastal storms in particular.

We got royally blasted by winds and rain last night but like the last 50 storms or so (arbitrary number alert) we have seen nothing but one-and-done systems, though some have been significant one-blasters.

The obvious point is we keep dodging multi-round volley storms. You don’t have to be long of tooth to recall legendary three-day nor’easters. Those three-day category storm are what brings the house, pun intended. During the Great March Storm, the third day had light winds and no precipitation but all was pretty much lost by then, as the 7th and 8th high tides bulldozed the Island.

It’s a mystery as to why we’ve suddenly done –one-day with virtually all big storms. It’s either because we’ve been lucky as all get-out or it might even be one of those weird things being created by climactic changes causing systems to move faster.

Regardless of the cause(s), one of these days we’ll see a catch-up storm. Mega-storms are graded by how often they occur. You’re talking wicked weather when you’re up to 50-year storms or greater. The 100-year storm seems to be a popular “Big One” reference point for scientists and coastal residents alike. It loom large because it’ll has a good chance of happening in one’s lifetime and it’ll be something like a 50-year storm times two – though the grading system doesn’t quite work exactly that way, still. The one concept that always perks my imagination – one I have written about and was even quoted during a meeting in D.C. – has to do with the scientific reality that someday there must also be, scientifically speaking a 1,000-year storm, a 10,000-year storm and (getting highly hypothetical) a million-year storm. Theoretically, a storm of even absurd dimensions could happen any year. The perfect storm was likely a 200-year storm. It is almost incomprehensible what that same storm would have done had it come together adjacent to the coastline.

Despite the inescapability of mega-storms, it’s nothing to lose sleep over. I’m serious. Anyone who lives the Island lifestyle knows full-well that the day of wreckerball reckoning will come. To use a tired but applicable cliché: It’s not if it’ll happen but when. And, truth be told, I’m pretty sure we’ll see our big one long before California sees its big earth-shaking big one or before Haleakala Crater on Maui will erupt again. You just realize all the fun and quality life that can be had before that destructive day descends -- and make it a point hope to foster the good weather sense to bolt when the Big One comes calling.

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