Daily Fishing and Outdoor Report
UPDATE: 2:00 pm
The SandPaper will be keeping folks up to date as official data comes in. See http:thesandpaper.villagesoup.com.
Update: 1:30 pm. The governor's declaration of a state of emergency ("CHRISTIE DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY IN NEW JERSEY AHEAD OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN") has added an urgency to a final decision by the Chowderfest Committee, which will be deciding the fate of this year's event by (likely) late afternoon, 4-ish.
From my point of view, it doesn't look good, chowder-wise. The BH Clerk is declaring it cancelled.
The borough of Beach Haven, in response to the state's official declaration, must follow long-established protocols regarding readying for an emergency, including possible evacuation preparations. Obviously, allowing an event that actually attracts thousands of people to a barrier island might be looked upon as counter-emergency. The borough might very well put the kibosh on the chowder-down. I don't know if there is a wait-and-see option, though folks cooking for the event just have to know, real soon -- to start cooking, literally.
There are obviously those who see what the latest map are showing: Sunday, cloudy and windy ... nothing worse. But, again, that state of emergency can override the more logical action to go with the latest forecasts.
Not that it should matter, but I still see possible patches of sun on Sunday. Of course, by Saturday I might be asking, "Who was the idiot who thought it might be partly sunny on Sunday?!"
Thursday, October 01, 2015: For some reason everybody is talking about the weather … which is a great topic when the fishing has been blown away … once again. And just when they were starting to get some nice cocktail blues at the fishable far south tip of the Island, per Stu (who awaits the return of the blue with a passion like no others.)
As to the subject of the weather, that always works for me, especially in this fascinating case, where a serious hurricane has everyone in our region mesmerized. Fascinatingly, that Cat-3 cyclone has become something of a decoy for some of the most astounding none-hurricane rains folks just to our south have ever seen.
A system only distantly related to Hurricane Joaquin is about to deluge the middle and western Carolinas with as much as 20 inches of rain -- in a short period. That’s insane.
We’re on the far periphery of that deluge but have our own northeast wind-thing to deal with. Again, our blow has nearly nothing to do with the hurricane; it’s just the way systems have aligned.
To be duly exact, Joaquin is (and will) add some circulation to the other systems bringing us nasty winds and also driving moisture straight off the Atlantic and into the Appalachians.
Regarding H. Joaquin, it’s easy to be a meteorological Monday morning quarterback (on Thursday). I’ll allege that from the get-go I felt – and even remarked – it was going to take forever to get moving northward and (quarterbacklier) it could very well turn out to sea.
As of the latest guesstimates (and that’s all any of this is in the long-range), a slow jog – more of a saunter -- to the east is now showing on the oh-so-many forecast maps, keeping the worst of things out over the ocean, as everyone greatly prefers. Even then, it might take until Tuesday for the storm to be off Jersey – possible well off Jersey.
However, I’ll play guessy by saying I actually see an as-yet unforecasted acceleration of the hurricane around Bermuda. The spooky thing about that is it could accelerate either east (more likely) or west.
I know that covers a ton of ground, so to speak, but it all has to do with how well Joaquin stays together as it moves toward slightly colder water. If it weakens rapidly, it could get caught up in the onshore flow noted above – and move west. Can you imagine more tropical rain atop the abovementioned deluges? On the other hand, if the storm keeps its full circulation intact, i.e. if it stays well-organized, it could/should counter-pinwheel to the east, as cyclones historically tend to do.
Below: This weatherwoman has a cousin named Joaquin so this is all very exciting ...
Hey, this is what weathery folks like myself do when sky-things get all freaky – and, yes, downright interesting.
As to the million-dollar question of how any of this will affect us, we’re also in a non-hurricane, nasty-ass, wind-weather mode. Obviously, we’re getting on-shored to hell and back -- by just everyday weather, if you can call it that. We’ll see honking northeasterlies out there for days on end, not unlike the way we spent all last week, though I think this go ‘round the winds will be pushing 30 mph with higher gusts. Nasty. And then we might feel any residual impacts of Joaquin – again, as far off as Tuesday.
As to the Chowderfest – and since I’m not making the call – I see wind but very little rain. Patches of sun might even be blowing about. For a while there, the storm and the Chowderfest were coming into alignment to the point I was going to suggest this year’s slogan might be “Eat and Evacuate” – which can be taken in a couple ways if you think about it.
How are our beaches holding up? Many sections are bitching and moaning, which is likely hard to visualize until you see over-washing on some beaches along with some ponding and gorging on replenished beaches. Ponding is where water overwashes replenished (or nearby) beaches and gathers in low spots – as happened a couple years back to create the temporary Lake Ship Bottom just north of the Brant Beach fill. Gorging is when water crosses replenished beaches then rushes back to sea, creating east/west gorges. When water is whipping through these gorges, it can contain a downright dangerous rip current-like rush of water, seaward. After gorges have dried, they can mark doom for a beach buggy unknowingly driving over the edge of one, which can contain sheer four-foot drop-offs. I’ll be cruising the beaches to watch for any such gorges and dangerous erosional areas.
Also, those ponding areas can get sand blown over the top of them, especially with the high winds we have now. Here’s a video of me finding the hidden remnant of Lake Ship Bottom: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kot8jHnXXsI