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Daily Fishing and Outdoor Report

1/23/2016 11:29 AM: Wow, is it windy. Not so much the max wind gusts, which could be 50-ish, but the sustained 38-mph.

Sea Isle City, Ocean City and Cape May in real trouble!!!

https://www.facebook.com/iamjasonp/videos/10153761849705090/?pnref=...

The proverbial tipping of the scales:

 

1/23/2016 11:29 AM: Wow, is it windy. Not so much the max wind gusts, which could be 50-ish, but the sustained 38-mph. It’s tough to take, should you be considering a leisurely beach walk with the pooch. 

The blowing sand is beyond brutal. Stand facing it for just five minutes and you get the equivalent of a $2,000, full facial dermabrasion.

“Who does your skin, Dahling!”

“Uh … Jonas.”

“You must give me his number.”

The Ship Bottom beaches are holding up fairly well – but they’ll still have to shoulder 12 more hours of ferocious side currents. Oh, I promise the beaches will look anorectic by storm’s end. This is a real beach eater. For me, I’m interested in seeing, firstly, how quickly replenished sand returns (and how much sand goes AWOL), and, secondly, how far south these insane currents will moves thousands of cubic yards of replen sands. In theory, as Beach Haven recovers from this storm’s immediate erosion, it might see a sandload of littoral drift material.

(Just had a gust to 54 mph.)

To this point, I rate this in the top 25 percentile of nor’easters I’ve seen. Since the storm is taking a tad longer (than expected) to move out – and also jogging far further north than anyone predicted – it could go up on the scale by midnight tonight. After that night high tide, I see things rapidly winding down -- with the help of wave-reducing northwest winds.

STAY TUNED: I’ll soon be heading out for a better look around LBI. Hopefully, my status as news media will help allay any uppityness from authorities homing in on the state-of-emergency no-driveabouts thing.

Video: 11:30 a.m. … I did a minor drive-about, mid-Island. That aligned with the bayside high tide -- around 11 a.m. in Manahawkin Bay. Nothing overly major, flood-wise. But I see bigger and floodier things coming tonight. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEgh2qQPlb4&feature=youtu.be

ONE-TWO PUNCH: Keep in mind that storms present double-barrel, high-tide dangers: The oceanfront high tide and the bayside, the later often coming many hours later than the beach.

The Island’s flooding is most often baywater, backing up via the sewers. That proves the bayside high-tide times need to be watched like a hawk.

(Just has another gust in the upper 50s)  

I’m surprised that virtually all the major television media are going so large on oceanfront high tides. Oh, I realize they were rightfully highlighting the erosion aspect but, by my thinking, the human impact is far more bay-based. I guess that doesn’t hit the small screen until homes begin to fill with bay water.

ADD MORE INCHES: A flood factor I had not seen coming, one that could enhance the next high tide, is the rapid melting of a solid six inches of snow. I did some quick roadside salinity checks this a.m. The floodwaters in Ship Bottom (Central Ave.) was salty, as is expected in that easy-flood zone. However, Boulevard puddles in S.B. and Surf City were mainly freshwater. There was a touch of road salt but the melt-off has all but washed even that brine away.

Worrisomely, melt-off has essentially pre-filled the Island’s already shaky sewer system.

I have no idea how to compute that into flooding, though I’d have to guess it could add half a foot to a flood tide. And I don’t have to tell you how consequential six added inches can be at max high tide.

BACK TO SNOW: I wasn’t the only one who had this storm heading out to sea more rapidly. As I noted, the storm’s current jog to the north -- based as much on the low’s intensification as it actually swerving north -- is preventing northeast winds from moving those few compass degrees to straight north, letting in the cold air. Now I see the Island not getting the strong snow bands that are common to a departing storm moving directly off the coast.

Ironically, yesterday I used a random snow-band weather shot from a past storm. It showed the final snow bands to our north, where the low moved off in that case. I see that look repeating, with NYC getting a final solar plexus punch of white. I never remotely saw the Big Apple getting crunched with the snow amounts they’ll end with.

As I write this (12:45 pm, afternoon), rain and snow are going back and forth as close as Little Egg. The mainland is stuck in that wild transition zone, twixt rain, sleet and snow – the famed “mixed precip.” There have also been some minor power outages thereabouts. 

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Comment by J. Terhoon on January 23, 2016 at 1:27pm

Two reasons the media focuses on oceanfront tides.

A. They have no clue that there can be a significant time difference between back bay & oceanfront tides.

B. They love to have some clown standing on the beach with big waves in the background. It makes good TV.

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